An Analysis Of Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

Fargo & Company (WFC) is a huge Westernaspire to if it hopes to continuously earn
and Midwestern bank that provides a diverse arrayextraordinary profits.
of financial services to its more than 23 millionUnfortunately, most businesses, however well run,
customers. The company employs more than 150,000can not attain this kind of mind share. The products
people at its over 6,000 locations nationwide. Wellsand services they provide can never be as
Fargo has about $500 billion in assets.differentiated and memorable as a motion picture.
While the company continues to derive more thanJust as importantly, the positive associations will not
half its revenues from interest income (about $26be present, simply because the product or service is
billion), its activities are not limited to collectingnot inherently exciting, entertaining, or pleasant. This
deposits and lending money. Wells Fargo engages inis clearly the case in financial services.
other businesses such as brokerage services, assetSo, what can a financial services company do to
management, and investment banking. The companyimprove its mind share? The most obvious tactic is
also makes venture capital investments.simply to “wow” its customers. In
Over the last ten years, Wells Fargo has averaged afact, Wells Fargo’s CEO discusses this
1.57% return on assets and an 18.19% return onparticular option in the “Vision and
equity.Values” section of the company’s
Locationwebsite:
Wells Fargo is closely associated with California in the"We have to 'wow!' them. We know what that feels
minds of most investors. The company nowlike because we’re all customers. We go to
operates in 23 different states. However, thethe cleaners, the grocery store, a restaurant or
concentration in California remains.whatever, and we find a situation where
Mortgage lending in California accounts forwe’re 'wowed!' We walk out and we say,
approximately 14% of Wells Fargo’s totalthose people really listened to me and helped me get
loan portfolio. Commercial real estate loans inwhat I need. All of us hear stories about customers,
California account for another 5% of thesay, who pick a certain line at the supermarket
company’s total loans. No other single statebecause they know the person who bags the
accounts for a similarly sized portion of total loans. Ingroceries connects with customers — smiles,
fact, neither mortgage lending nor commercial realgreets regular customers by name, asks how their
estate lending in any other state accounts for morefamilies are doing. When a personal banker helps a
than 2% of Wells Fargo’s total loans.customer in one of our stores, or when a customer
Cross-Sellinggets help from one of our phone bankers or does
Wells Fargo’s focus on cross-selling is welltransactions on we want them to say, 'That was
known. The company has a stated goal of doublinggreat. I can’t wait to tell someone.'"
the number of products the average consumer andAnother option worth pursuing is widening the
business customer has with Wells Fargo to eightassociations present in the customer’s mind.
products per customer (from the current fourFinancial services is a business where associations
products per customer).tend to be more conscious, categorized, and
Cross-selling increases customer stickiness. It alsohierarchical than the associations formed in more
helps increase profitability by decreasing expensesheavily branded businesses. Put simply, the (potential)
relative to revenues. The need for a large physicalcustomer usually thinks of a “set”
footprint is reduced – as is the need for abefore thinking of an “element” within
large number of bankers. Instead, the existingthat set. Like many mental associations, the
infrastructure is able to provide additional revenueinformation can be returned in either direction. For
from the same customers.example, the customer may normally think
Wells Fargo’s Chairman & CEO, Richard“banks” and then think “Wells
Kovacevich, explains the importance of theFargo”, but will also be able to return the
company’s cross-selling in the “Visionword “bank” if prompted by the
& Values” section of the corporatename “Wells Fargo”. This
website:categorization is important, because it provides
"Cross-selling — or what we call(limited) permission for Wells Fargo to expand its
“needs-based” selling — is ourmind share horizontally (across service categories).
most important strategy. Why? Because it is anIn other words, providing a diverse range of financial
“increasing returns” business model.services doesn’t just make sense from the
It’s like the “network effect”provider’s perspective, it also makes sense
of e-commerce. It multiplies opportunitiesfrom the user’s perspective, because the
geometrically. The more you sell customers the moreuser of financial services has already grouped
you know about them. The more you know aboutdeposits, borrowing, credit cards, insurance,
them the easier it is to sell them more products. Thebrokerage services, asset management, etc. together
more products customers have with you the betterin a very loose way within his mind. As a result of
value they receive and the more loyal they are. Thethis mental network, one positive experience with
longer they stay with you the more opportunitiesWells Fargo will greatly affect a customer’s
you have to meet even more of their financial needs.desire to pay for an additional service, even if the
The more you sell them the higher the profittwo services are not really all that similar.
because the added cost of selling another product toThe three key elements here are: a broader definition
an existing customer is often only about ten percentof what Wells Fargo is (a place that does
of the cost of selling that same product to a new“money things”, not just a bank), a
customer. This gives us—as an aggregatorpositive experience, and some sense of trust that
— a significant cost advantage over onethe quality of service will be consistent. The last
product or one channel companies. Cross-sellingrequirement is the easiest to meet, because
re-invents how financial services are aggregated andit’s natural for a customer to assume that
sold to customers — just like otherthe positive experience was not a fluke, much the
aggregators such as Wal-Mart (general merchandise),way a diner assumes the good meal he had at a
Home Depot (home improvement products) andparticular restaurant was not caused by his picking
Staples (office supplies)."the best offering from the menu. The diner usually
Mr. Kovacevich’s enthusiasm for theassumes the overall quality of the
cross-selling model is well justified. It is difficult torestaurant’s various entrees is superior.
quantify the importance of meeting all the variedLikewise, a good experience with one of Wells
needs of your customers, because you can notFargo’s products or services will likely rub off
measure the opportunities you missed. However, it ison its other offerings.
obvious that reducing each customer’sValuation
interest in considering a competitor’s servicesShares of Wells Fargo currently yield just over 3%.
will greatly increase long-term profitability for anyThe stock trades at a price-to-book ratio of just
company engaged in any line of business – notunder 2.75 and a price-to-earnings ratio of less than
just for a bank.15.
Later, in the same website section, Mr. KovacevichConclusion
addresses the importance of customer stickiness:Wells Fargo’s CEO makes the case that his
"(Cross-selling) is our most importantcompany’s P/E is simply too low. Wells Fargo
customer-related sales metric. We want to earn 100has a solid history of strong growth and profitability.
percent of our customers’ business. TheSo, why should it be valued similarly to most other
more products customers have with Wells Fargo thebanks? Shouldn’t it be awarded a multiple
better deal they get, the more loyal they are, andmore in line with a growth company?
the longer they stay with the company, improvingThere’s actually some merit to this argument.
retention. Eighty percent of our revenue growthWells Fargo is unusually well positioned for a bank.
comes from selling more products to existingOften, those banks that seem certain to earn very
customers."high returns on assets and equity for many years to
This focus on retention is an important part of acome are poorly positioned for future growth. These
long-term plan to maintain Wells Fargo’sbanks are often smaller than their competitors and
above-average returns on assets and equity.focused on a specific geographic niche. Any
Extraordinary profitability comes from differentiatingacquisitions would dilute the exceptional profitability of
your product or service from those of yourthe bank’s niche.
competitors. Increasing customer stickiness andOf course, there are also many consolidators in the
reducing “comparison shopping” is abanking industry. Unfortunately, many of these banks
key part of maintaining extraordinary profitability.do not have a history of earning the kind of returns
Some businesses are blessed with enviableon assets and equity that Wells Fargo has achieved.
economics because of their product’s naturalEven more importantly, there is little differentiation
prominence in the minds of their customers. Mostbetween these titans of the banking industry and
businesses are obsessed with market share. But, howtheir national competitors. Therefore, their moats are
many really think about “mind share”?highly suspect.
Obviously, a product like Coke (KO), Hershey (HSY),Wells Fargo is a different kind of bank. It has a
or Snickers is going to have a positive association inhistory of extraordinary growth and profitability.
the minds of consumers.There are two obvious opportunities for future
For many people, these products will also have agrowth: geographic expansion and cross-selling. Of
prominent place in each customer’s mindthese two opportunities, it's clear I’m more
(relative to other products and services on whichenamored with the latter. An eastward push is not
money can be spent). A few other businesses havenecessary, and certainly not via an ill-advised
a healthy mind share without the positive association;acquisition.
GEICO is the most obvious example. TheThere is a lot of value in the Wells Fargo franchise
company’s brand conjures up nothing but theand there is plenty of room within that franchise for
words “auto insurance”. Of course,future growth. That’s one of the great
that’s all the GEICO brand has to do.advantages of the financial services industry. With
So, what does all this have to do with Wells Fargo?the right model, limits to growth are almost
Mind share isn’t just the result of exposurenon-existent. In other highly-profitable industries,
to advertising. In fact, in most cases, exposure tothere is often nowhere to reinvest new capital at a
advertising can not duplicate the kind of results thatsimilar rate of return.
a direct, differentiated experience creates.If Wells Fargo is a growth stock, it is a peculiar sort
Entertainment properties are by far the leaders inof growth stock. Maybe that is what attracted
mind share. People who saw and loved Star WarsBuffett to the company in the first place. Here is a
remember the film. In fact, they don’t justbusiness with a strong franchise that can grow for
remember the film, they actually file it away (or,many years to come. Perhaps most importantly, it is
more precisely, cross reference it) in countless waysa growth business that frequently trades in the
within their mind.market at value like multiples, simply because
The evidence for this particular example is abundant.it’s a bank.
There are countless references to Star Wars in otherAt the current market price, Wells Fargo is the sort
media. The name, the music, the opening text andof investment you make once and forget. The
countless other elements are immediatelyvaluation is not so cheap as to promise a good return
recognizable. Even the films Star Wars fans hatedif the business falters. But, the business is not so
made more money than almost any other movies insuspect as to require the margin of safety be
the history of cinema – and this was decadesprovided by a low P/E ratio. Sometimes, near certain
after the original came out. So, obviously Star Warsgrowth is the margin of safety.
has the kind of lasting mind share any business should