Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Fundamentals.

ign="center">The growth rate g of Free Cash Flow after the
DCF Analysis is one of the most popular valuationTerminal year.
methodologies in use today.Advantage nr. 4: Ability to perform valuation analysis
DCF Analysis offers several advantages over otherwhich is almost totally independent from the
valuation methodologies:prevailing capital market conditions
Advantage nr. 1: Ability to customize the financialSince DCF Analysis considers business model of a
model which is the basis for the valuation to anycompany being valued in great detail and only based
given business situation.on specific business metrics, it is possible to capture
DCF Analysis is most universal and can be used tothe “true” value of a company
value any business, provided a reasonable financialbeing valued with reference only to its specific
forecast can be created.situation and without regard for the overall capital
Knowledge of financial modelling techniques allows tomarket conditions.
customise the financial model for any businessThis is very important as sometimes the capital
venture and business development scenario. As such,markets are influenced heavily by prevailing
using the DCF Analysis we can value any business nomacroeconomic conditions, e.g. during recession years
matter how unique the business model is. This is invaluation of companies fall in general. This way some
sharp contrast to the Comparable Trading Analysisgood companies are “punished” by
which can be used to value a given business only ifthe markets without good reason. This is one of the
comparable public companies do exist and if financialmost important limitations of Comparable Transaction
forecasts are available for these comparablemethodology.
companies.Main disadvantages of the DCF Analysis include:
Advantage nr. 2: Ability to select an appropriateDisadventage nr. 1: High dependence on the chosen
discount rate wacc which specifically addresses aassumptions
unique circumstances of a given capital marketOutcome of the DCF Analysis is highly dependent on
Since the applicable discount rate wacc is individuallyseveral key assumptions. Some of the most
calculated for each DCF valuation analysis, a high levelimportant assumptions where judgement is exercised
of flexibility exists to capture the reality of a giveninclude the wacc components, the Free Cash Flow
capital market. Wacc calculation includes the followinggrowth rate “g” after the Terminal
main factors:a) risk free rate of interest of a givenYear, the revenue growth rate, the EBIT, EBITDA
capital market (e.g. T-Bills in the USA)b) risk premiumand Net Income margin assumptions and the Working
commended by equity investors over risk freeCapital assumptions. This limitation can be addressed
investments in a given capital marketc) Beta of aby running sensitivity analysis.
given business (Beta measures how sensitive theDisadventage nr. 2: The necessity to prepare a
equity return of a given company is in relation to thefinancial model
market return (e.g. return of S&P 500 index) Beta =Unfortunately DCF Analysis requires preparation of a
0 means that the returns are not correlated at allcomprehensive financial model of a company being
(Beta can be negative) Beta = 1 means that thevalued. It is an intensive and labour consuming
return of a company is 100% correlated with theprocess which requires a considerable technical
return of the market.expertise.
Advantage nr. 3: Ability to run sensitivity analysisIn summary it seems that advantages of the DCF
Sensitivity analysis is the analysis which tests howmethodology outweigh the disadvantages, and DCF
sensitive the outcome of the valuation is to theAnalysis will remain in the foreseeable future one of
changing values of the key inputs and assmptions.the most important and universal company valuation
Since valuation is more of an art than science,methodologies.
sensitivity analysis is highly useful in negotiating andDCF Analysis is extensively used for:
agreeing what the value of a given company is, as itCompany valuations for the Merger and Acquisition
allows to position the valuation as a range of values,transactions
rather than a single value.Compliance valuations
Most popular inputs which are being tested in theInvestment analysis for the venture capital and
sensitivity analysis for a company being valuedprivate equity investors
include:Restructuring valuation analyses
Growth rate of revenues, EBITDA, EBIT and NetSpecialized reports required by the IFRS (intangible
Income margins, Level of corporate synergies (esp.asset valuations and purchase price allocations;
In M&A transactions), Working capital assumptions,goodwill impairment analysis)
CAPEX levels, Obtaining new debt, paying fasterReports supporting litigation and dispute resolution
existing debt, Obtaining funds through an IPO or an(e.g.
SPO, Wacc inputs (risk free rate, risk premium, Beta),