| The semiconductor chip is at the core of what we | | | | supplier for a particular process step, but all fabs |
| think us as technology. Computers, cell phones, iPods, | | | | have equipment from many different companies. |
| medical equipment, avionics, etc. have only been | | | | A few years ago, a major "Wall Street Analyst" cut |
| possible because of the chip. The American chip | | | | his forecast of Applied Materials' business prospects |
| industry has been damaged by the recent economic | | | | based on the growth of the Taiwan semiconductor |
| slowdown like most industries, but more importantly, | | | | industry. The flaw in this logic is that a Taiwanese |
| the chip business in the United States has been in a | | | | factory uses U.S. equipment at about the same rate |
| slow fall for 30 years. | | | | as a United States based company. U.S. companies |
| In January global chip sales dropped by almost a third | | | | also commonly use equipment manufactured from |
| from the previous year, to $15.3 billion | | | | outside the U.S, especially from Japan. |
| (Semiconductor Industry Association). | | | | Since the chip equipment industry is so globalized, if |
| Overinvestment in chip factories has resulted in steep | | | | Sematech makes an advance, U.S. companies gain |
| losses of over the last 2 years. The chip business has | | | | little, if any, advantage. Chip manufacturing has |
| been compared to farming. If too many farmers | | | | become highly homogeneous, from company to |
| plant cotton, then the price of cotton will drop | | | | company, and from country to country. Because the |
| (supply and demand). | | | | equipment companies now controlled the process |
| The American chip industry, outside of Intel, is an | | | | technology, it became much easier for countries like |
| endangered species. AT&T, Hewlett-Packard, | | | | South Korea, Taiwan, and China to enter the market. |
| and others are already gone from the field. Others, | | | | If a company had the money, the technology was |
| like Texas Instruments, have set a path for the | | | | for sale. |
| eventual elimination of manufacturing. These | | | | The result of the work done by the industry, |
| companies have gone "fabless", meaning they will | | | | especially by Sematech and its Japanese counterpart, |
| continue designing applications, but leave the process | | | | Tohoku University, was that the process of |
| technology and manufacturing to someone else | | | | manufacturing chips became less of an art, and more |
| (most often to companies in Asia). | | | | of a science. Chip manufacturing became "paint by |
| The microprocessor market has been the exception, | | | | the numbers". Once the industry reached this level of |
| especially Intel. The microprocessor market has been | | | | maturity, the price of capital, and the price of labor, |
| controlled by Intel. It has been a kind of monopoly. | | | | became the dominant factors in the choice of |
| But Intel, when operating outside the microprocessor | | | | manufacturing location. |
| arena (i.e. DRAM or Flash memory), has followed the | | | | A state of the art fab requires an investment of |
| general model. | | | | $3-4 billion. Chip manufacture is now a commodity |
| Intel has recently closed 3 factories (the industry calls | | | | business involving huge production volumes and low |
| them "Fabs", short for fabrication): one in Colorado, | | | | profit margins. A recent count of the last 40 chip |
| one in Oregon, and one in California. But Intel is | | | | factories built showed that 35 were in Asia, 3 were in |
| building microprocessor fabs at the same time, | | | | the United States, and 2 were in Europe. |
| currently building a factory in Phoenix and one in | | | | The memory market, including the products DRAM |
| Israel. Intel is doing OK. Intel had over $12 billion of | | | | and Flash Memory, is the most competitive chip |
| cash on hand at the end of 2008. | | | | arena. South Korean companies currently dominate |
| In 1980, one of the pivotal events in the history of | | | | the memory market. Samsung is the leader, with |
| the chip industry, was IBM's selection of Intel to build | | | | more than 30 per cent market share, and Hynix is |
| the microprocessors for the IBM personal computers. | | | | second, with more than 18 per cent market share. |
| IBM chose Intel over Motorola and Zilog (Zilog was | | | | Elpida (Taiwan) with 15 percent, Micron (U.S.) with 11 |
| founded by ex-Intel engineer Frederico Faggin, who | | | | percent, and Qimonda (formerly Siemens/Infineon, |
| invented the MOS process while at Fairchild). | | | | Germany, currently in bankruptcy) with 8 percent, |
| IBM insisted that Intel facilitate second sources for | | | | are the other significant market share holders. |
| the microprocessors by allowing companies like AMD | | | | The Emergence of the Chip Foundry |
| to alternatively manufacture the chips. Intel's wealth | | | | Chip manufacturing technology continues to become |
| has been almost fully acquired because of their | | | | more of a commodity. Companies that once |
| control of the personal computer. IBM ceded control | | | | designed, manufactured, and marketed chips, now |
| of the personal computer away with this agreement, | | | | hire a third party for the manufacture step. This is |
| or more accurately, their failure to execute this | | | | what is meant by a "fabless" company. The company |
| agreement. | | | | that performs the manufacturing step is the |
| The Rise of the American Chip Industry | | | | "foundry". The design is accomplished via collaboration |
| The Chip Industry has its roots firmly in the United | | | | between the foundry and the fabless company. |
| States. Scientists at AT&T Bell Labs invented | | | | A modern foundry provides software tools so that |
| the transistor in 1947. The chip, or integrated circuit, | | | | the fabless company can accomplish their objective |
| was invented by Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments | | | | using standard process cells, technology that is |
| and Robert Noyce of Fairchild (later Intel) in 1958. | | | | owned by the foundry. One of the world's first chip |
| There were many interim steps between these two | | | | foundries was created in Taiwan by Texas |
| seminal events, most accomplished by the teams | | | | Instruments in 1989 to manufacture DRAM. The |
| from Fairchild and RCA. | | | | company was called TI-Acer. |
| In 1975, the U.S. had more than 70% of the world's | | | | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), with $30 billion |
| market share for chips. The chip industry titans during | | | | market capitalization, is the current leader in the |
| the development years were IBM, AT&T, | | | | foundry chip industry, and currently boasts more than |
| Texas Instruments, Motorola, and Hewlett-Packard. | | | | 44 per cent of the world market share of chip |
| These were established technology companies that | | | | foundry business. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a |
| had success in the emerging field. | | | | joint venture of Philips (Netherlands), the government |
| Silicon Valley, in California, was largely the result of | | | | of Taiwan, and private investors. Morris Chang is the |
| startup companies with ties to Fairchild, who was | | | | founder of TSMC, and continues to serve as the |
| located in the area. Fairchild was a technology | | | | Chairman. Mr. Chang's resume includes 25 years at |
| pioneer, but most of the success came from Fairchild | | | | Texas Instruments, leaving as a group vice president |
| alumni, what became known as the "Fairchildren". | | | | in charge of the company's worldwide semiconductor |
| Alumni from Fairchild founded Intel, AMD, National | | | | business. TI-Acer merged with TSMC in 1999. |
| Semiconductor, LSI Logic, Altera, Xilinx and many | | | | The world's second largest foundry is also in Taiwan. |
| others. One notable Fairchild alumni was Eugene | | | | UMC claims more than 14% of the foundry business |
| Kleiner, who would later found Kleiner Perkins, a | | | | worldwide. Taiwan, a country about the size of |
| venture capital firm that would help Amazon, Google | | | | Vancouver, Canada, has the highest concentration of |
| and Sun Microsystems become billion-dollar companies. | | | | semiconductor manufacturing in the world. |
| The Fall of the American Chip Industry | | | | It is interesting to note that two of the executives |
| Since the U.S. had such a commanding market share | | | | instrumental in recent events in the semiconductor |
| in the 1970's, it was natural that this position would | | | | industry are on the TSMC board of directors: Carly |
| be difficult to maintain. The first challenger was Japan, | | | | Fiorina and Thomas Engibous. |
| who was very successful at capturing the DRAM | | | | Carly Fiorina is now best known as John McCain's |
| market, at the time the most important chip market. | | | | Economic Advisor during the last election. She is the |
| By the mid 1980s, 80 percent of the DRAM market | | | | former CEO of Hewlett Packard where she oversaw |
| belonged to Japan. | | | | HP's exit from the chip manufacturing business. In |
| Many outside of Asia fail to give proper credit to the | | | | addition, Ms. Fiorina spent nearly 20 years at |
| emergence of Japan in the chip industry. The | | | | AT&T and Lucent Technologies Inc. where she |
| common perception is that the sole reason for | | | | served as Executive Vice President, Computer |
| Japan's success was low labor costs. In fact, the | | | | Operations for Lucent and oversaw the exit of |
| primary reason for Japan's ability to manufacture at | | | | AT&T from chip manufacturing. |
| lower cost was a superior technical strategy. | | | | Thomas J. Engibous (former Texas Instruments |
| American DRAM manufacturers switched to a | | | | Chairman, former president and CEO 1996 -2004), |
| lithography technology called "steppers" a generation | | | | was the department manager of TI's semiconductor |
| before the Japanese. The Japanese continued to | | | | group when TI established TI-Acer. Texas |
| utilize the previous generation lithography technology | | | | Instruments has eliminated their R&D operation, |
| called "scanners". The American companies falsely | | | | and plans to be fabless for most of their production. |
| believed that scanner technology would be | | | | TI was one of TSMC's first customers. Much of the |
| inadequate for the newest memory devices. | | | | foundry model has roots from within Texas |
| Scanners are significantly faster and less expensive | | | | Instruments. |
| to operate than steppers. Because the lithography | | | | The Future of the American Chip Industry |
| step is so important to the overall process, the | | | | Intel will continue to dominate the Personal Computer |
| Japanese had a significant advantage, and used that | | | | microprocessor business for the foreseeable future. |
| advantage to capture the DRAM market. | | | | There are threats. AMD does everything well except |
| In 1987 the United States started a research | | | | make money. A Taiwan company called "Via" may be |
| consortium called Sematech to combat the loss of | | | | the more significant long-term threat. Via designs the |
| market share. The plan called for the chip companies | | | | chips and manufactures them at the local foundries. |
| to share research costs, with a government subsidy. | | | | Via's core designs originated with Cyrix |
| Member companies contributed $124 million to | | | | Semiconductor, a company started by ex-Texas |
| Sematech's 1990 budget and $100 million was | | | | Instrument engineers. Cyrix was sold to Via in 1999. |
| contributed by the government through the Defense | | | | Via's processors are competing well against the Intel |
| Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). | | | | "Atom" microprocessor, in less expensive laptop |
| Japan's market share did drop in the early 1990's, but | | | | computers. |
| this was probably more as a result of problems in the | | | | AMD recently completed an agreement with a |
| Japanese economy than with developments in the | | | | company from ATIC (Advanced Technology |
| U.S. chip industry. The Japanese stock market | | | | Investment Company) funded by the Government |
| "bubble" burst, much like the dot-com market burst in | | | | of Dubai, that should enable them to continue to |
| the United States. Japan's market share of total chip | | | | compete with Intel. AMD plans to build (with their |
| sales peaked in 1988 at about 49%. Today, Japan's | | | | partner), a chip manufacturing facility in Saratoga |
| world market share of the chip business is about | | | | County, New York. AMD currently manufactures all of |
| 25%. | | | | its microprocessors in Dresden, Germany. |
| Sematech had a positive impact on the U.S. chip | | | | AMD has a technology exchange agreement with |
| companies' circuit reliability. Statistical process control | | | | IBM. IBM continues to do well. IBM's strategy is to |
| (SPC) techniques were led by Sematech and resulted | | | | participate in higher margin products and avoid |
| in dramatic improvements. Motorola, a Sematech | | | | commodity markets like DRAM. IBM remains a world |
| member, was the first winner of the Malcolm Baldrige | | | | leader of chip technology. |
| Quality Award. The progress in reliability enabled chip | | | | Foreign companies continue to invest in U.S. fabs, but |
| customers to forego incoming inspection of chips, a | | | | at a reduced rate. Samsung is doing well with its |
| huge cost savings. | | | | DRAM factories in Round Rock, Texas, a few miles |
| Sematech was very active helping an immature U.S. | | | | north of Austin. Samsung operates two fabs; the |
| equipment industry improve their tools. Sematech | | | | newest fab opened in 2007 and is considered |
| effectively moved the technology center of | | | | state-of-the-art. |
| semiconductor industry from chip manufacturers to | | | | There are also success stories at the lower end of |
| the chip equipment companies like Applied Materials | | | | the technology scale. X-Fab, a German company, |
| and KLA. Before Sematech, the customers were the | | | | operates a fab in Lubbock that is a bright star on a |
| process experts, but now the process tool | | | | bleak landscape. X-Fab excels by thinking |
| companies included process expertise with the | | | | "out-of-the-box", something exceedingly rare in the |
| equipment. This was very good for the lucky | | | | chip industry today, ironic considering its history. It |
| equipment companies, but Sematech was very | | | | would be impossible for X-Fab to compete in a high |
| selective. Many tool vendors were shut out by | | | | volume, low margin business like DRAM, but they do |
| Sematech. | | | | very well with custom analog chip production. The |
| Those outside the chip community sometimes fail to | | | | facility was originally built by Texas Instruments. |
| understand the degree to which the chip equipment | | | | More than half of the chip fabs in the United States |
| industry is internationalized. A fab requires hundreds | | | | in in operation at the beginning of the decade are |
| of different process tools for the many different | | | | now closed. Outside of Intel, there has been little to |
| process steps (some chips require more than 500 | | | | cheer about. There is little mystery about what the |
| process steps). Many of the tools cost more $1 | | | | future holds. Our actions today determine our |
| million. Most fabs will attempt to standardize on a tool | | | | consequences tomorrow. |